On December 12, 2015, the world witnessed a historic moment of international cooperation as nearly 200 nations assembled in Paris to adopt the Paris Agreement—a milestone treaty in the global effort to address climate change. This landmark accord, negotiated under the auspices of COP-21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), set forth an ambitious shared vision: to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to cap warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement introduced innovative elements such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which required both developed and developing countries to set voluntary emission reduction targets, with expectations that these commitments would become more ambitious over time. Regular five-year global stocktakes and enhanced transparency frameworks were also built in to strengthen accountability and facilitate progress reporting. Alongside these targets, developed countries promised to mobilize at least $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing nations.
Yet, as the Paris Agreement marked its first decade in 2025, the world faces a grim reality: its bold promises have largely gone unmet. Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb, propelled by entrenched economic systems reliant on fossil fuels, geopolitical conflicts, and a complex interplay of economic disruptions and ideological divides. Despite scientific consensus warning that current climate pledges fall perilously short of what’s needed to avoid catastrophic temperature increases, progress has stagnated amid systemic inertia.
Central to the Paris framework’s design was its reliance on voluntary, non-legally binding commitments rather than enforceable emissions caps or penalties. This architecture depended on mutual trust, transparency, and international peer pressure to incrementally increase ambition. However, progress has been undermined by resistance from powerful fossil fuel interests, political cycles that deprioritize climate action, and interrupted energy transitions. Several developing nations have expressed growing distrust as wealthier countries have faltered on their financial commitments, particularly the pivotal $100 billion annual climate finance pledge. Repeated delays and opaque funding mechanisms have hindered cooperative momentum essential for a global response.
External shocks—ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to geopolitical conflicts such as war—have diverted essential political focus and resources, further weakening climate action commitments worldwide. Yet no disruption has had a more symbolic and practical impact than the United States’ on-again, off-again relationship with the accord.
As the world’s second-largest emitter and historically the largest cumulatively, the United States’ involvement is critical. Initially, under President Barack Obama’s administration, the U.S. proudly signed the Paris Agreement in April 2016 and formally joined that September. The country pledged leadership by setting ambitious climate targets and committing $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund to support vulnerable countries in adapting to and mitigating climate change.
However, this commitment unraveled under President Donald Trump. In June 2017, Trump announced the U.S. intent to withdraw, branding the Agreement “a bad deal for the American people” that threatened jobs and undermined national sovereignty. The formal withdrawal process followed the legal timeline outlined in Article 28 of the Agreement, with official notice given in November 2019 and formal exit occurring November 4, 2020—ironically one day after the U.S. presidential election.
Even before the formal withdrawal, the Trump administration systematically dismantled key domestic policies, including the Clean Power Plan, which was instrumental in reducing U.S. power sector emissions. This rollback virtually guaranteed failure to meet the nation’s Paris targets and undermined America’s leadership in global climate diplomacy. Ejection from the Agreement’s mechanisms meant losing access to critical reporting, negotiation forums, and funding channels, thereby diminishing U.S. influence and trustworthiness on the world stage.
In contrast, the European Union and China stepped into more assertive leadership roles, advancing climate initiatives and shaping international norms. The abrupt cessation of U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund dealt a serious blow to developing countries reliant on those funds for climate resilience efforts. Public opinion polls during the withdrawal period showed strong majority opposition across U.S. political divides, prompting numerous states and cities to form the U.S. Climate Alliance, seeking to uphold climate goals independently from federal policies.
President Joe Biden’s swift reentry into the Paris Agreement in February 2021 signaled renewed American commitment to aggressive decarbonization and international cooperation. The reengagement was accompanied by new climate targets and participation in global initiatives aimed at accelerating clean energy transitions. Nonetheless, this commitment faced renewed challenges as President Trump, at the onset of his hypothetical second term on January 20, 2025, issued Executive Order 14162—“Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements”—triggering immediate U.S. withdrawal from the Agreement and cancellation of all climate finance obligations related to the Paris framework.
This abrupt withdrawal severs the U.S. from vital global climate institutions, ending obligations for NDC implementation, transparency requirements, and participation in the global stocktake process. Such actions exacerbate doubts about American reliability as a global climate partner and disturb the fragile architecture of international climate cooperation. The repeated on-off pattern of U.S. engagement has weakened collective ambition by raising transaction costs for cooperation and fueling skepticism among other nations.
The Paris accord born of hope and multilateral optimism, now battered by the volatile tides of domestic politics. The narrative would highlight the U.S. role not only in shaping but also in fragmenting the Agreement, underscoring the emotional and diplomatic toll—felt keenly by vulnerable nations on the frontlines of climate impacts, by global allies counting on American leadership, and by American citizens who once believed their country championed a sustainable future.
At the heart of this story is the Paris Agreement itself—a globally innovative institutional experiment predicated on transparency, flexibility, and universal participation. Its frameworks for regular stocktakes and evolving NDCs remain powerful tools capable of driving change. Yet the Agreement’s fragility is exposed when confronted by shifting political winds, especially of a pivotal nation like the U.S. whose policy swings can undo years of global work.
Looking to the future, the column would ask critical questions: What becomes of the Paris framework when its most influential backer repeatedly chooses disengagement over cooperation? Is the global climate agenda to remain hostage to domestic electoral cycles? And how does the world respond when ideology, rather than evidence or necessity, dictates climate policy from one of its largest emitters?
The U.S. disruptions have fractured the collective effort, impairing the trust and coordination necessary for sustained climate action. Without consistent American leadership, global ambitions risk faltering, and the efficacy of the Paris mechanisms diminishes. The Agreement’s reliance on peer pressure becomes a weakness when major players opt out, allowing global ambition to fall short of what science demands.
As the decade closes, the Paris Agreement still offers a framework for international climate cooperation—its core mechanisms intact and its objectives urgent. The planet’s climate crisis continues unabated, underscoring the urgency of steady, unflinching commitment. Yet the United States, an indispensable actor at the Agreement’s birth, remains an inconsistent partner, drawn toward climate progress only to be pulled back by partisan divisions.
For the Paris Agreement to endure and realize its transformative potential, nations must rise above short-term political contests and govern with a long-term vision for humanity’s future. Failure to do so will reduce landmark climate pacts to symbolic gestures instead of effective solutions. Meanwhile, the natural world’s crisis will advance relentlessly—unconcerned with the electoral calendars that so often dictate policy.
Asaduzzaman Shamrat, is the Executive President of the South Asian Climate Change Journalism Forum (SACCJF).
